On International (not really) Economic Forum Putin ridiculed the predictions that Russia may eventually attack NATO members of European Union, calling this "utter nonsense". In 2019 he was ridiculing the idea that Russia may ever attack Ukraine, using almost the same words.. He was actually saying that in January 2022, weeks before he actually attacked Ukraine. This clearly demonstrates that the "applied Putinology", or analysing Putin's words verbatim and trying to make any sense of them, has the same predictive value as substantive analysis of Nigerian scam emails.